So new it's old! I have a new piece
up on The Big Money. I'm calling for the development of a new automotive business model based on a more versatile product--effectively, a new Model T--than what's currently being offered by the Big Three (e.g., Chevy Volt), the Japanese, or all the new EV startups (some of which are struggling).
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The current car-based transportation system has many costs besides those captured in optimal 'mpg' values. There is production, shipping, decommissioning, recycling; there is parking and idling in heavy traffic; there are accidents and the costs of driving.
Despite this, the alternatives are generally grim. Bus routes that run less often than 15 minutes don't get utilized because they aren't viewed are reliable. Taxis also have lots of fear, doubt and uncertainty attached - prices and performance are unpredictable. Taxi drivers also get stiffed on tips ~30% of the time and are afraid of passengers. Subways only effectively serve a few blocks around the stations - even people in that small area can't effectively carry groceries and such to their doors and so often own cars to supplement the mass transit.
These cars have all the costs (economic and environmental) associated with production, parking, depreciation, ... even though they are used infrequently.
...
So how can we avoid these costs? Will creating another 'low occupancy vehicle' that gets 100 mpg, but spends 22 hours of every day parked be the best answer to the problems posed by all these costs?
Admittedly, efficient light trucks might be the best solution in rural areas, where density is low and roads can be rough or at least long and empty, and cargo is common.
However, this isn't the case in exurbs, suburbs and cities. Fortunately, the technology we need for an efficient solution is already present.
Ideally, we would have a system that reduced the number of vehicles on the road, manned them with expert and practiced drivers, carried maximum number of passengers and volume of luggage with every trip, and handled getting people door-to-door. It would have an easy to understand and use interface, be inexpensive and reliable so that everyone would use it, would integrate high efficiency transit like subways or buses, and do dynamic tradeoffs between cost and time that the passenger could control.
We could create a system like this by integrating a backend like enhanced Google maps with dynamic routing of taxis, small vans, or even buses. They could use real-time traffic and gps information to connect with subways or other mass transit. The reservation system could be based on cell phones with gps, credit card prepayment, and the ability to either take luggage along or have it sent separately in cargo vehicles (think peapod or UPS, but local).
This would also enhance profits for taxi drivers - more passengers, more multi-passenger trips, less dead time, and prepayment could avoid dangerous passengers and stiffed tips. Since drivers are stiffed ~30% of the time, this would be a significant benefit for cabbies.
Removing fear, doubt, and uncertainty is good for everyone...
Finally, how would this change the entire transportation system and cars in particular?
Now, cars are often 1 person vehicles, parked most of the time, in heavy traffic much of the rest.
With fewer vehicles each carrying more passengers, most on the road 24x7, parking would be in less demand and cities could be higher density. Traffic could be less and dynamic routing would avoid it better. Professional drivers with commercial licenses in less traffic would mean fewer accidents overall. MPG/passenger would be up and production cost/maintenance per passenger mile would be way down.
Add to this a complete redesign of cars, eventually. When a car is used 2 hours each day for a few years and is a fashion statement that can't cost more than $20,000 for many people, there are lots of sacrifices and tradeoffs made... that would change if it was a professional vehicle driven all the time by people who valued reliability, maintainability, efficiency and safety above everything else. A commercial vehicle could cost $240,000 if it ran 24 hours a day at the same cost per hour of operation. If it lasted 15 years, not 5, it could cost $720,000. If it carried 2.5 passengers instead of 1 each hour, it could cost $1.4 million dollars and still be a discount.
Imagine what safety and efficiency improvements could be built into a vehicle that cost a mere $200,000 but had no 'frills' like custom rims; that put all that money into function. You might see composite carbon bodies, finely tuned engines, regenerative braking, fancy batteries, and repairability that goes beyond anything imagined today.
We could be saving money, time, injuries, inconvenience, ... all with existing technology employed inventively.
In the end, the only systems that will work are those that benefit the people paying for the service and the people selling the service. Fortunately, this system does both. It happens to leave out the current automakers and the UAW, though it doesn't positively exclude them.
Ford's model T was a mechanism to sell more cars and it worked brilliantly by making society dependant on the car. If I wanted to make a killing in transportation today, I'd be the one running the routing systems; all the hardware, cell phone systems, taxi companies and credit card companies have overhead costs. They won't do badly; and their costs are already sunk, so this will be good for them... but someone could be the new Commodore Vanderbilt by running the computers.
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