Fisker, "Success," and Vapor-ride-sation

Yahoo Finance spit this out today, but it's re-purposed from BizWeek. The topline is that there were some successful startups amid the carnage that was finance in 2008. Among them, Fisker Automotive.

OK, Fisker might amount to something. Someday. But I was scratching my head at the following listing:

Fisker Automotive

Irvine, Calif.
Founders: Henrik Fisker and Bernhard Koehler
VC investment over the last four quarters: $90.5 million

Henrik Fisker and Bernhard Koehler met at BMW, where both worked as auto designers (Fisker is credited with designing the Z8). In 2007, they founded Fisker to build plug-in hybrid luxury cars, with the goal of selling to car buyers who want to improve their impact on the environment but not have to make a compromise when it comes to style. The 45-employee company, which is still in the development stage, is predicting the recession will improve by midyear 2009 and that consumers will be turning to eco-friendly cars for good, explains Fisker spokesperson Russell Datz.

"...still in the development stage...predicting the recession will improve by midyear 2009...consumers will be turning to econ-friendly cars for good..." And by gumption, when Fisker gets out of the development stage and the recessions clears and consumers make the final switch, it's...sure to be the luxe-statement Fisker sleds they go for!

What gibberish! The whole friggin' thing was written off whatever Russell Datz supplied. Note as well that if BizWeek's numbers are correct, and if $90.5 bil is what Fisker has burned so far, then they are FAR from the average cost of developing a new vehicle, much less a paradigm-busting exotic EV.

A New Business Model for Cars--The Model T!

So new it's old! I have a new piece
up on The Big Money. I'm calling for the development of a new automotive business model based on a more versatile product--effectively, a new Model T--than what's currently being offered by the Big Three (e.g., Chevy Volt), the Japanese, or all the new EV startups (some of which are struggling).

$15 Billlion Is Pathetic--Now More Than Ever You Need to Buy American

It looks as if a kick-the-can bailout of the Detroit Big Three is about a done deal. Still, that's about $10 billion less than what they were (a) asking for (b) originally promised under a pre-financial crisis plan to retool their plants to produce cars that would deliver higher fuel efficiency. It's almost $25 billion less than the revised figure that they floated last week. I mean, let's call a duck a duck here: $15 bil gets GM and Chrysler to maybe next spring, at which point they can revive merger discussions. By then, Ford should be feeling the pinch, as well.

Contrast these figure with the hundreds-of-billions in cash suck the financial sector, which played roulette with subprime mortgages, is getting. The financial sector, such as it remains, is selling goo. Gunky funky garbage-y goo designed to endow the seventh homes of hedge fund helmers and to line the bespoke pockets of MBAs who swaggered into Wall Street investment banks with visions of mega-bonuses dancing in their heads. There's no meaningful future in this gunk, just as their has been no profit in trading equities in a normal market since, oh, I don't know, 1964. It's bubble-bubble-bubble now, with a Federal Reserve horror of inflation jacking the system, a program has delivered nothing so much as the more feared inverse, deflation. Too much money chasing too few goods? Yeah, how about no money chasing bottomless excess inventory.

And sooooo...what's afoot now, exactly? Looks like a last-ditch conservative putsch to bankrupt the Big Three so that the UAW can be done away with forever. The Big Three may actually be on baord with this. But as far as an endgame goes, it means more $15-an-hour, disposable contract labor in right-to-work Southern states, building Toyotas and BMWs, and A LOT less $50-an-hour unionized workers in the Upper Midwest.

Forget about the vanquished opportunity to get the taxpayer into a Green deal with the domestic automakers. This paltry bailout is more of a stay of execution. Let's hope the new administration comes into Washington with a more courageous industrial policy. As it stands, this is a sad day to be an American and love cars.

L.A. Auto Show for The Big Money

Here's my take on the L.A. Auto Show for Slate's new site The Big Money. The event actually wasn't as depressing as I thought it would be--but it was certainly depressing (although on balance not as bad as the pre-meltdown New York Auto Show back in March). Main story was that Ford, with more money in the bank than GM and Chrysler, and with more Green cars, rolled out a more dramatic presence. Check back later for pictures from the show.

Hufffington Post: Save the SUVs, Then Kill Them

It's hard to say that Detroit betting big--and winning big--on SUVs and trucks for a decade was a bad plan. When gas was cheap, tons of money was raked in by the Big Three. Small cars have always had crummy profit margins, and if you add on the cost of making small cars highly fuel-efficient, you erode profits even further. BUT--the time has come to make a serious change. Unfortunately, Detroit still needs SUV and truck profits to get it there. At least for the short term. Here's my take, from the Huffington Post.

Let Detroit Drop Dead!

Not a good idea, in my view, but one that's being put forward by Cliff Mason in a recent blog post at CNBC. He thinks we could take Detroit's potential bailout money and use it to improve public transportation. On its face, better public transportation sounds great, but we're not in a position to trade better subways and buses for a decimated Detroit. In fact, we need not just to save Detroit but to manage its future growth and development through an industrial policy. So we're not just talking about a public bailout of the Big Three Two, we're talking about a need to continue to provide Detroit with taxpayer support. Concessions, of course, should be exacted.

Can Tata Motors Be the Detroit That Wasn't?

Even though official launch of Tats Motor's $2,500 "People's Car" has been delayed by some local issues with the initial plant site, I'm still fascinated by the car--and also with Tata as a corporation that both represents what Detroit should have become in the 1970s and symbolizes the way forward for genuinely sustainable mobility. Here's my take, from the Huffington Post, where I'm now blogging for their Green site about Sus Mo.

Debating the Electric Car

Increasingly, I've come to think that electric cars are a bad idea. At least for right now. I have some backup on this, from actual scientists, which I will be getting into in future posts. But for the moment, here's my Huffington Post take on Tesla Motors, which has garnered more attention than anyone in the electric car game.

A good report from AP on what's happing with the GM-Chryslerberus-Renault merger dance. Note that it details the numbers: GM has a minimum operating cash requirement of $14 billion and would get something like $11 billion if it merges with Chrysler. Presumably, this would buy it another year of burn (it's currently going through $1 billion a month in cash reserves to stay in business). Of course, under this scenario Chrysler is effectively gone for good.

Speed Channel Preview of China GP Track

Getting revved up for the China GP this weekend. Here's a terrific breakdown of the track, which has some unique features, as well as some technical talk about car setups. Lewis Hamilton has a lot to lose if he doesn't have a good race, so the moves that McLaren makes will be important.

Kinky Linky

This isn't exactly a new spot, but I hadn't caught sight of it until I noticed a Lincoln banner ad on my Yahoo! mail page. "Leather wrapped cyberspace!" Sounds like a tagline from Neuromancer, or some kind of techno-S/M cult. Really, what's wrong with Young & Rubicam, Lincoln's ad agency? I don't buy a Linc so I can be surrounded by screens. I buy a Linc so I can feel like Jack Kennedy on the way to the Sands to make time with the Rat Pack. At that point, we can get into all the leather wrapped cyber-whatever we want...

Top Gear with My Son, James

Like any good father, I hope to inspire my young son to take up a suitable trade. Medicine, law--or perhaps Formula 1 racing?!?! We'll see. I've already had him out to the track once (to watch), and he proved he could drive (sort of) last weekend, when he took the wheel of a kiddie tractor at Underwood Family Farms in the Simi Valley (before it became part of the fire zone). Can Karts be far off? Anyhow, at night while his sister is reading about fairy princesses and magical sprites, we fire up YouTube and watch Top Gear. Last night, we stumbled across this 2007 interview with F1 driver Lewis Hamilton, who I blogged about yesterday. Watch until the end and see Hamilton nearly outdo the best time ever in the Reasonably Priced car lap. And pay attention to Jeremy Clarkson's quip about Hamilton's secondary sex characteristics. (James, by the way, knows Clarkson as "that funny guy.")

Also, as Top Gear's YouTube channel disables HTML code, I posted what looks like old spy video of Hamilton filming the Reasonably Priced segment.

James and I will be tuning into the Chinese Grand Prix this weekend, for some exciting down-the-stretch racing action.

Lewis Hamilton For The Win...Maybe?

British F1 sensation Lewis Hamilton--he's 23, he's multiracial, he drives for McLaren--once again has the prize within his sights. OK, it's not quite the same setup, nearing the end of the F1 season, as last year. In his debut year, Hamilton had a sizable points lead going into the home stretch, then lost it. This year, after a debacle in Japan this past weekend, he's holding a narrow, 5-point lead over Filipe Massa (84-79). Edward Gorman, in the Times, has a solid rundown of the whole situation. The comments on his story are also cutting in favor of Hamilton, who has attracted plenty of controversy in his brief, but wildly successful, time racing in F1. In fact, on the eve of the Japanese Grand Prix, Gorman offered this fairly prescient analysis of what might go down:

Like Ayrton Senna, his hero, Hamilton is fast becoming the driver everyone wants to bring down, which in its way is among the biggest compliments the sport can offer. Few get to the top in Formula One without bruising the egos of others on the way and it seems that Hamilton is no exception. A problem for him, though, is that his attitude in the cockpit is attracting critical attention not only from his fellow drivers, but the FIA stewards who have picked him out on several occasions this season, not least at the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa last month where he was demoted from first to third place for what amounted to overly aggressive tactics.

There's a great narrative building here for the final two races of the season. Hamilton, the brightest star that F1 has produced in some time, and a national hero in Britain, is facing multiple demons simultaneously. Can he redeem himself from last year's failure, when his points lead was even wider than this year? Can he overcome the impression that he's not an aggressively competitive driver, but a reckless one? And finally, can he climb to the top of the soap opera of interconnected rivalries that F1 has become?

The next few weeks might be the best show in sports, at this juncture. I know I'll be glued to the Speed Channel.

[Image: Official F1 website]

Rick Wagoner: Looking a Little Palm Beach, Mr. Chairman

Is it just me, or does GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner look sort of...reddish in this altogether strange YouTube video? Truthfully, of all the current Big Three heads, I think I admire Wagoner the most, but better makeup is always a nice idea. Shoulders on the suit make his head look small, but I like that he's late-summer-fying with the tan gabardine. Not crazy about the shirt (CEOs should never wear button-downs).

The date on the video is 9/22, so Wagoner's optimism preceded GM's swoon into precariously low valuations during the Dow's roller-coaster ride over the past few weeks. Today's close? $6.37/share, a big bump (more than 30%) after the slaughter last Friday, but still miles below the high of around $43. It used to bug me when all the domestic carmakers did was talk about the "challenges" facing their industry (seemed as if they were indulging in the simple prophecy of low expectations, to borrow a phrase), but now I'm thinking they're on to something.

Nardelli's "Globality!" Era Drawing to a Close at Chrysler?

What a difference seven months make. When I last caught sight of former lumber salesman/current dark overseer of Chrysler (which is owned by the secretive Cerberus Capital Management), he was proclaiming himself a car guy and heralding a new era of "globality" (Globality!) for the last place number three U.S. automaker. Looks as if that New York auto show speech really was the beginning of some kind of end, as the Freep is now reporting that Nardelli is admitting that Chrysler is discussing its hail marys strategic options with potential partners (like GM and possibly Nissan/Renault). That would of course be code for "we gots to sell this sucker before it bleeds us dry." Or, as Nardelli himself put it: “Chrysler does not comment on speculation or discuss its private business meetings."

It's hard to know what to make of Chrysler's fate. Obviously, with GM and Ford both tanking--GM's valuations have retreated to Eisenhower Administration levels--so it's difficult to figure out what any suitor would get by saddling itself with Chrysler's steadfastly unpopular vehicles. An outstanding minivan? GM might think that this represents a good opportunity to eliminate some of the competition, absorbing whatever decent designs and R&D Chrysler has in its pipeline (evidently, Chrysler's skunk works has whipped up some surprise entrants in the electric car sweepstakes). If Nissan and Carlos Ghosn are in the game, then that just seems like a way to make trouble for GM, as it's impossible to see what Nissan would do in partnership with Chrysler, other than gain access to Jeep.

One thing's for sure: Nardelli's Globality! Era sounds even more ridiculous now than it did back in March.